Thanks to Sonya of Only 100 Words for hosting #3LineTales. Sorry, a bit of cheat with this one, but I couldn’t get the idea out of my head for the photograph. I think it’s 4 or 5 sentences. But who’s counting. 😉
Credit: Jerry Kiesewetter via Unsplash
Say, there’s a million dollars in one green box (ignore the yellow boxes), and there’s Monopoly money in all the other green boxes, but you don’t know what green box has the million dollars, and what boxes have Monopoly money.
You select green box number 7 as the box (you guess) has the million dollars, but it’s also revealed that in green box number 2, there’s only Monopoly money; do you choose a different green box or stay with green box number 7?
Many people would say, there’s a 50/50 chance your first choice is the correct green box with the million dollars, but they’d likely be wrong, and here’s why: There was a 3/4 (75 %) chance of you choosing a box with Monopoly money, and there’s still 1/2 (50 %) chance of you choosing the Monopoly money, when green box number 2 is revealed. There’s only 1/4 (25 %) chance of you choosing the million dollars; therefore, you should change your green box selection because there is a greater probability you were, initially, wrong choosing green box number 7, than choosing the green box that contained the million dollars.
Maybe some of you have heard of this? It’s called ‘The Monty Hall Problem.’ Check out the video here: The Math Question that Has Stumped Thousands of ‘ManSplainers.’ Apparently, men have greater trouble understanding this reasoning than women. What do you think?
©Mandibelle16. (2018) All Rights Reserved.